Trump and Cannabis: Is "Reform" Code for "Tax the Hell Out of It?"

Let’s talk about Donald Trump and cannabis—because, honestly, who wouldn’t want to dive into this chaotic mess of mixed signals, political jargon, and potential tax hikes?

If you’ve been following Trump’s stance on cannabis, you might have noticed that his opinions seem to change more often than a chameleon on a rainbow. So what’s going on here? Will he go full legalization, or will he slap the cannabis industry with regulations so heavy, they’ll need their own weed dealer just to afford the taxes?

Trump's Track Record: “I’m Not Totally Against It...I Think?”

To be fair, Trump hasn’t exactly been a vocal anti-cannabis crusader. In fact, during a 2018 interview, he said, "I think it’s good, but I think we need to let the states decide." Sounds chill, right? Almost like he's passing the joint and letting everyone have a puff. But wait—it gets a little trickier.

In 2018, Trump’s Attorney General, Jeff Sessions (a guy who probably thinks the “weed” in “weed whacker” is still dangerous), rescinded the Obama-era Cole Memo. That memo essentially said, “Hey, federal government, chill out and let states handle their own cannabis laws.” So, Trump let Sessions roll that back, which didn’t exactly scream, “We’re going to start handing out free weed with every vote!” Instead, it was more like, “We’ll let states decide… but also, we might poke around in your business when you least expect it.”

And here’s the kicker: Trump has repeatedly referred to marijuana as a “gateway drug.” Yep, right alongside crack cocaine, heroin, and… your cousin’s vape pen.

Trump’s Latest Quote: "Research and Common Sense" or Just More Bureaucracy?

But wait—Trump’s not totally out here playing the villain. In a more recent statement, he had this to say about cannabis:

“As President, we will continue to focus on research to unlock the medical uses of marijuana to a Schedule 3 drug, and work with Congress to pass common sense laws, including safe banking (sic) for state authorized companies, and supporting states rights to pass marijuana laws, like in Florida, that work so well for their citizens.”

Sounds a little more friendly, right? In theory, unlocking medical marijuana's potential and moving it to a Schedule 3 drug could actually help the industry, especially for those businesses struggling under the weight of 280E taxes. And who doesn’t love the idea of being able to open a cannabis business bank account without having to sneak around in the shadows like a criminal? Safe banking would definitely make the lives of cannabis retailers and growers a whole lot easier. States’ rights to pass their own laws? Sure, that's fine for places like Florida where everything's "working so well"—except that they’re dealing with a very different landscape than, say, California, where “working” seems more like “hurdling over a mountain of taxes and paperwork.”

But let’s not get too carried away. The devil, as they say, is in the details. Trump’s talk of “research” and “common sense laws” could easily be a guise for more regulation and taxation than anyone signed up for. This isn’t exactly the “hands-off” approach you might hope for if you’re a cannabis enthusiast or small business owner.

What Does Trump Mean by “Reform”?

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Recently, Trump has been talking about cannabis "reform." And I’m just sitting here thinking, “Please don’t let this mean a 280E tax on top of an already confusing patchwork of state and federal laws.” Because let's be real, when Trump says “reform,” we’re all just hoping he doesn’t mean "let’s throw a bunch of taxes and regulations on cannabis until it’s a corporate nightmare."

The man loves a good business deal, so it’s not hard to imagine him thinking that cannabis is just another business waiting to be regulated, taxed, and turned into a big ol’ cash cow for the government. If federal legalization is the goal, it wouldn’t be surprising if Trump sees a golden opportunity to get his hands in the pot—and not in a fun way. We might be looking at a scenario where marijuana becomes a federally regulated market with all the trimmings: heavy taxes, compliance costs, and more paperwork than anyone could ever ask for. It could be less “free the weed” and more “let’s make it a pain to do business.”

Will He Tax the Hell Out of Cannabis?

Let’s talk taxes for a second, because if Trump’s “reform” involves any kind of federal legalization, we’re probably looking at a tax situation so complicated, even your accountant will start using cannabis as a coping mechanism.

You think California’s cannabis tax is bad? Oh honey, wait until you see what Trump might cook up. California’s already got one of the highest cannabis tax rates in the country—people there are basically paying for a Lamborghini every time they buy a joint. So, yeah, if Trump decides to take a stab at federal legalization, expect to pay more for weed than you do for your phone bill.

And don’t get me started on 280E—it's like a bad ex you can’t shake off. For the uninitiated, 280E is the IRS rule that says you can’t deduct normal business expenses if you’re in the cannabis industry. You know, just in case you wanted to be taxed out of existence while you try to grow some weed legally. So, if Trump’s “reform” means keeping 280E around or even expanding it? Yikes. It could be like running a business in the middle of a tax minefield.

The “Little Guy” vs. The “Big Cannabis” Monopoly

If this reform is anything like what we saw in states like California, you can bet small businesses will feel the squeeze. Bigger cannabis companies with deep pockets might thrive in the face of extra regulations, but the little guy? Not so much. In fact, many smaller growers and retailers might find themselves buried under new rules, licenses, and fees that make it almost impossible to turn a profit.

For growers, the idea of federal regulations—on top of all the local and state ones they’re already juggling—could make farming cannabis feel like trying to run a farm while also writing an essay about the history of the US tax code. The little boutique dispensaries that have been serving communities might have to watch as larger, corporate-backed brands dominate the market, running them into the ground with expensive compliance costs.

What’s Really Going to Happen?

So, where does this leave us? Well, if Trump moves forward with “reform,” we could see cannabis become even more of a financial minefield than it already is. Higher taxes, more regulations, and a lot of paperwork might be in the cards. The dream of legal, affordable weed? Well, that might get a lot more expensive.

But, then again, Trump has always been a wild card, so who knows? Maybe he’ll surprise us all and decide to leave it all to the states—or maybe we’ll all be paying for federally mandated “weed insurance” in a few years.

In any case, if Trump’s involved, just make sure you’ve got your accountant and your lawyer on speed dial. It’s going to be a ride.

TL;DR: Trump says he’s open to cannabis “reform,” but don’t be surprised if that means taxing and regulating the industry into oblivion. If we’re lucky, he might just keep his hands off the weed, but don't bet on it.